1. How did Russia-Ukraine come to the brink of war?

The interactions between the two regions of Russia and Ukraine developed on a formal basis from the 17th century, but relations ended when the Russians also liquidated the autonomy of Kievan Rus' which was its first capital. Shortly after the 1917 Communist October Revolution, the two states interacted again. The modern bilateral relationship between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, officially after World War I, in 1920, with the occupation of Ukraine by the Russian and Polish Red Army, the relations between the two countries changed. Soviet Russian forces captured Ukraine, and relations between the two states changed from international relations to internal relations in the Soviet Union, which was established in 1922. In the 1990s, bilateral relations between these two states, of which both Soviet Russia and Soviet Ukraine were officially founding republics, were revived immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Relations between the two countries have been severely fragmented since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity (since the removal of the Pro-Russian President Yanukovych from office in 2014 between 2010-2014). Until Yanukovych was removed from power, the two states had economic cooperation with various trade agreements. Then, in eastern Ukraine, military clashes between the Russian-backed rebels and the Ukrainian Armed Forces began in April 2014. Then, in 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and in a war in the Donbas[1] region in the south-east of Ukraine in early 2020 for its support of the Donbas separatist fighters, it has resulted in the deaths of more than 13,000 people and the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia. On March 17, 2014, Crimea declared its independence. On March 18, 2014, the agreement to annex Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia was signed in Moscow, and the next day all the Armed Forces of Ukraine withdrew from Crimea.  Since then, Ukraine's highest diplomatic representation in Russia has become its interim charge d'affaires.  Despite numerous ceasefire agreements signed between Donbas separatist forces and Ukraine since September 2014, these agreements have been violated many times by both sides.  For the past year, the Russian Army continues to build up on the southeastern and northern borders of Ukraine, which puts increasing pressure on it. Performs show of strength and military drills.

2. What is the latest situation in the Ukraine-Russia crisis?

Powerful states of NATO, Britain and the USA, have been helping Ukraine, especially with diplomatic support, for the last 8 years, by providing an ever-increasing number of military equipment and modern weapons. More than 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trained by British military experts. However, it is difficult to say that there is complete unity among NATO countries. Hungary, which joined NATO in 1999, and Slovenia, which joined in 2004, announced that they were not willing to send troops to Ukraine. The great powers of the EU (European Union), France and Germany, do not want the crisis in Ukraine to turn into a war. French President Emanuel Macron's announcement last year that “NATO is experiencing brain death” was seen as a sign of a deep crack within NATO.  In addition, as a result of the AUKUS[2] agreement, France blamed NATO allies Britain and the United States for the reason Australia's refusal to buy the submarines it agreed to buy from France, and said "we were backstabbed".

In short, the Ukraine crisis does not seem to be of much interest to other NATO and EU countries, except for Poland, which has lived for years under the pressure of the US-UK and partly former Soviet Republics, forced by the Russian communist regime with the occupation. The lack of clear unity among Western countries and Putin's meeting with Chinese President Chingping in Beijing the previous day, sending a message of support from China to Russia against the enlargement of NATO in addition to gaining morale support from Russia, making some strategic agreements covering natural gas sales, I can evaluate that the efforts of the West to produce alternative remedies against the Swift system have contributed to the encouragement of Russia in the increase of Russia's reckless military pressure on Ukraine. In fact, against the possible economic sanctions of Russia from the west, it is possible to say that the formation of the China & Russia Strategic Alliance is caused by the endless expansionist ambition of the Western bloc into Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, through countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, to their alternative counterparts.

Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip ERDOĞAN's visit to Ukraine the previous day added moral support and potential strength to Ukraine, in addition to the bilateral agreements he made with this country in previous years and with the signing of new commercial agreements, it did not have an effect on stopping the crisis. However, it is appropriate to say that the positive communication and sincerity that President Putin of the Russian Federation and President Zelenskiy of Ukraine have had with the President of Turkey for many years are considerations that support Turkey's role as a mediator. I hope that the fact that our President has contracted the Corona virus disease will delay the mediation efforts between the two countries (including Putin's visit to Ankara for a while), I hope it will contribute to the slowdown of the crisis in the talks to be held when Erdogan recovers. Finally, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron declared that efforts should be made to resolve the Ukraine-Russia crisis through diplomatic means. Even though they emphasized that NATO should unite against “Russian aggression” during the meeting, it is clear that these are just so-called “patriotic” words. On the other hand, Macron is trying to ensure the interests of his country in the eyes of Russia by holding bilateral talks with Putin.

3. The US-NATO talks with Russia last week yielded no results. WHAT DOES IT MEAN to reject Russia's request from NATO in issue of “Guarantee not to take Ukraine into membership”?

According to a famous newspaper report published in a western NATO member country, the US offered mutual confidence-building measures, including disarmament agreements, in return for Russia's reduced military threat against Ukraine. In these documents, the United States and NATO reject the idea of signing a bilateral agreement on the security of Europe, which are Putin's main demands, and not to recruit new members to the alliance. Instead, it proposes negotiations on disarmament agreements and mutual confidence-building measures in forums such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the NATO-Russia Council. In other words, based on the statements I have expressed above, we can say that the EU and NATO countries are not fully united; each approaching Russia for their own benefit, Russia's good use of the energy trump that it swings over the people and industries of Central and Western Europe like Damocles' sword, and that the EU does not have a strong army to intervene in the crisis; NATO's declaration that it will send 3.000-5.000 soldiers to the borders of Poland and Romania, the NATO countries neighboring Ukraine, and to Kaliningrad, which is among the NATO countries of Russia on the shores of the Baltic Sea; it will not be enough to deter Russia from its invasion plans on Ukraine. Especially, Russia, which seized the strategic cooperation and support of China with the agreement it made the previous day, cannot go beyond whetting its appetite for Ukraine in the face of this insufficient reaction of the West. In a possible war, Ukraine will suffer the most. Of course, its neighbors such as Turkey and Romania will also suffer.

4. What would you say about the Britain-Poland-Ukraine New Alliance?

As the Ukraine-centered geopolitical crisis deepens, there are indications that Britain is developing alternative plans for its own interests with Russia, independently of NATO. Britain indicated that it could form a 3-way alliance with Poland and Ukraine against Russia.  Recent developments show that interests that were thought to have ended 100 years ago are still on the agenda.  Following the February and October revolutions of 1917, Tsar Nicholas II, cousin of King George V, was deposed and murdered with his family. This event marked the beginning of the blood feud between the parties. Until then, the two countries Russia and Britain, which had signed secret agreements to share Iran, Afghanistan and even the Ottoman Empire, became fierce enemies of each other. In the civil war that broke out in Russia between 1918-1920, Britain supported both the White movement fighting against the Red Army and the Polish and Ukrainian armies with weapons, ammunition and soldiers. The narrow victory of the Polish army in the Battle of Warsaw in 1920 prevented Soviet Russia and communism from reaching western Europe. The ties established between Britain, Ukraine and Poland in this process continued during the World War II. General Sir Nicholas Carter, who left the British General Staff on November 30, 2021, also stated in September of the same year that structures similar to the AUKUS Alliance, created by the USA, Australia and Britain for the Indo-Pacific region, should be established in the Black Sea and Baltic regions. The discourse of the “Britain-Poland-Ukraine Trilateral Alliance” shows that the basis for Carter's statements has already been laid.  While the UK has trained approximately 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers since 2014, it has also supplied the navy with missiles to be used against ships and more than 1000 anti-tank rockets for the land forces. The London administration provided £1 billion 250 million for the renovation of Ukraine's naval facilities on the Black Sea coast. Britain's efforts, which are obviously beyond NATO's limits, are followed closely by Russia. As a matter of fact, the Kremlin administration took action, realizing that it needed a separate meeting with Britain on the Ukraine issue. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and British Defense Minister Ben Wallace have been mutually inviting each other for a while. These mutual invitations have not yet yielded any results. However, Russian news sources report that British Foreign Minister Liz Truss will visit Moscow in February and meet with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The exact date of this visit has not been determined yet. The Russian policy, which gives the impression that the UK is conducting with the approval of the United States only in a way that exceeds NATO, may also explain the reason for Germany's overly cautious policy towards Russia. The reason behind German Chancellor Scholz's rejection of the invitation of US President Biden to talk about the Ukraine crisis on January 21 may be the discomfort in Berlin caused by the fact that the UK, which left the European Union, came to the forefront on an issue that concerns the fate of the EU. The Berlin administration also took the risk of sacrificing Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, the Commander of the Naval Forces, to make him say that “respect for Putin and that it is not possible to take back the Crimea” in order to announce this discomfort to the public.  As a matter of fact, following this statement, admiral resigned. A hundred years ago, Britain had unfurled the flag of the Soviet Union in order to protect the European monarchies, as well as to keep the Caucasian and Iranian oil. Today, we will soon see whether the anti-Russian policies, which he has taken on in the name of natural gas energy security and democracy, will give a different result than in the past, or will they determine the borders of the Second Cold War. [3]

5. Is There a Problem Regarding Security in Eastern Europe and the Balkans?

Today's situation is somewhat reminiscent of the “Panislavist” policy of the Tsarist Russia in the 18th and 19th centuries, which means to unite all the Slavs. Because, in the last two months, when the Ukraine crisis started to escalate rapidly, the developments in the autonomous Republika Srpska[4], especially in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, fueled the 1804 Serbian and 1821 Greek revolts against the Ottoman Empire, and the policies of the Tsarist Russia, which was the supporter of the establishment of the Bulgarian Principality in 1878. In the same centuries, while the Russian Tsardom increased its influence in the Balkans, on the other hand, it waged a series of wars with the Ottoman Empire in the Caucasus. Especially in 1877-78, at the end of the war known as the Russo-Turkish War against the Ottoman Empire, we were losing almost all of the Turkish lands in eastern Thrace, Istanbul and lands around it. Northeast Anatolia, Provinces of Kars, Ardahan, Artvin and Batumi were occupied for more than 40 years. In 1878, the Russian Army, advancing south through Bulgaria, to Istanbul Yeşilköy and the ridges to the east of Küçükçekmece Lake (to cover today's Sefaköy district), caused the first[5] of the 3 main causes of a great disaster, which was the beginning of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. It also posed a great threat by demanding land from Turkey in the Straits and Eastern Anatolia in the 1936s. Due to this threat from the USSR led by Russia, Turkey felt compelled to become a member of NATO and take part in western security.

As it is known, the overwhelming majority of the people of Russia belong to the Orthodox Christian sect. In the Balkans, the majority of the population is Orthodox in Serbia, Montenegro, Greece and Bulgaria. In this respect, Russia still sees itself as the chief heir of the Eastern Roman Civilization in the 21st century, benefiting from the influence of the Russian Orthodox church on the Orthodox churches of the other states, as it has in history. If you have noticed, the names of many of the people in the mentioned countries are similar (Dimitri-Ivan-Vladimir etc.) and even the same, due to the influence of the same religious culture.  Shipka Pass in the Central Balkan Mountains of Bulgaria is the place where the hardest battles of the 1877-78 Russo-Turkish War took place. In the inscriptions of a great church made by the Bulgarians in this region, the admiration for the Russians and the Russian statesmen are blessed as liberating themselves from the Turks. Also, even though Bulgaria has been an EU member since 2007, there is still the Russian Flag next to the Bulgarian Flag on that church road. During a trip I made here in October 2021, I prayed for our 30,000 Ottoman martyrs who lost their lives in the Battle of Shipka Pass. Today, Russia, on the one hand, is starting to disorganize the Balkans from the bottom up with this Orthodox religious union and ethnic Slavic kinship and Language-Cyrillic Alphabet unity, while on the other hand, it aims to reach the borders of the former USSR with the “Modern Russian Eurasianism” movement. By following a course of action that can be explained by the concept of “Near Abroad Concept”, it aims to seize the lands that will ensure its survival and strengthen its existence, and it seems to be determined to hinder NATO's progress.

6. Why Russia reacts so strongly to Ukraine's intention to join the EU and NATO?

Russian leader Putin's vast experience and effectiveness in the state administration of the Russian Federation since the collapse of the USSR in 1991, especially in recent years, when his experience of statesmanship based on KGB Intelligence-based knowledge has reached its peak; There are some strategic moves that will cause him to be referred to as the “Peter the Great” of the last century.

NATO and the EU are the biggest obstacles to Russia achieving its strategic and historic Main Objectives, which I have mentioned above.

Although NATO's great western powers have not been able to fully realize their imperialist secret - overt ambitions based on the 1916 Sèvres understanding on Turkey; the greatest danger of the 20th century is that the USSR acts as a shield against the western expansionism of the USSR. Since 1952, Turkey has been able to enter NATO and remain under the NATO protection umbrella to some extent. In this respect, Russia is still a great danger for Turkey. The spirit of Peter the Great of Czarist Russia, lives on in Putin. Russia will never exclude it from its strategic goals by seizing Istanbul and Anatolian lands, which was once the capital of Eastern Rome (Byzantine), and to have Mediterranean coasts.

If Ukraine becomes a NATO member state like Turkey, the two allied states in the far east of the west, together with Turkey, will form a strong barrier against Russia's westward expansion, and by this means, the USA and other NATO countries will end Russia's hegemony step by step. In other words, Russia's strategic historical imperial plans will fail, it will not be able to get out of the Black Sea region, and it will regress against NATO expansionism in eastern Europe, step by step, country by country. Thus, a Russian Federation that cannot maintain its geopolitical position will dissolve and collapse day by day. It needs to grow even more, to seize the richer parts around the world in order to reinforce its existence and sustain its survival. Although Russia is the largest country in the world with an area of 17 million square kilometers, a large part of this land is not very suitable for agriculture and animal husbandry. Fossil energy is what keeps Russia alive. These resources are destined to run out in the near future. In this case, there is a need for other underground and aboveground riches that will keep Russia alive and maintain its strength.

7. Why is Putin pursuing a policy of escalation?

Russia knows that the West cannot do anything to its ambitions on Ukraine with a de facto military operation. That is why he wants to achieve his goals without going to war or incurring great expense. He supports his diplomatic policies with his military build-up. Thus, he tries to ensure that he surrenders without a fight by threatening it, like a tiger that corners its prey, like the states that besieged a castle in ancient times. Because war is a great destruction for all parties, it is very costly.  In addition, according to UN laws, the state that started the conflict between the two parties has a heavy compensation obligation at the end of the war. He does not want to enter such a state of responsibility and guilt.

8. Is Russia really planning to invade Ukraine?

I believe that if he cannot solve the crisis after escalation, he will put into effect a plan that starts with a conflict and ends with an occupation, just as he did against Georgia in the Russo-Georgian War (South Ossetia) in 2008.

9. The idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is imminent has caused controversy. So what is Russia's plan?

By implicating the interior of Ukraine, similar to the one in the Donbas region; provocation of a conflict that will ignite war, through Ukraine's northern border and Russia's staunch ally Belarus through the Collective Security agreement on the pretext of coming to help in a new conflict in the Donbas region in the north and on the eastern borders of Ukraine, it can start a war that will result in the occupation of all of Ukraine.

10. Is it a sign of Germany-US rapprochement with the Ukraine-Russia crisis?

Germany, which was defeated on all fronts at the end of World War II, is already under the influence of the USA. And the USA has many bases and soldiers here. And German nationalists are very uncomfortable with this situation. However, Germany recovered quickly after both world wars with extraordinary efforts, as it faced huge financial losses and war reparations in both world wars and suffered great human losses. Thanks to its extremely disciplined and hardworking people, it wants to have a say again. However, despite the fact that it has a very productive, rich economic power with a gross national product of several trillion dollars a year and the EU has two major states together with France, Germany is not allowed to be among the permanent members of the UN with veto power.[6] As the leading country of the EU, Germany is in a competition for efficiency with France in the union over the other 26 member states. Germany, which lagged behind other imperial colonial western states (England, France, Russia, Italy, etc.) in the following centuries before the industrial revolution, wants to continue its economic and scientific progress in a peaceful environment in the 21st century, and avoids spending for war. In fact, the USA and other permanent members of the UN also included clauses in their agreements with Germany at the end of World War II that would prevent the strengthening of German army.[7] Although Germany gives the impression that Russia's Ukraine Crisis is not of much concern, I would like to point out that among the main reasons for both world wars, Germany fell behind the others in colonialism and was not able to get the share it wanted.

10. 7 years ago, Putin sent troops and weapons to eastern Ukraine. Why has the existence of these covert operations been denied so far?

Until such military activities are revealed, it is natural that the state which is the subject of the claim remains silent. In addition, HYBRID[8] warfare, a new type of warfare of the 21st century, is becoming widespread. The forces of this war, besides the conventional forces, primarily consist of special units. These can be official special forces of states, or they can be mercenary companies that do not consider themselves responsible for the execution of these structures and that act as paramilitary or civilian. It is estimated that there are about 16 private military companies in Russia, in addition to WAGNER, which is the most well-known one. In the Russian Federation, which has a population of more than 140 million, it has been learned that the number of such personnel is as high as 500,000 people. Apart from these, the citizens of other states of pro-Russian or Russian origin, which Russia calls “Russophilia” in other states neighboring its borders, are effective in occupation or annexation operations. In that case, if Russia covertly used such personnel in such operations, why would it declare that it sent soldiers and weapons?

12. Is it the Kremlin's show of strength or preparing for war by reminding Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea?

Russia is doing both. I think Russia is a very mature and experienced state in this regard, especially when compared to the countries it has borders. We also saw the attempted rebellion in Kazakhstan last month. Take a look at the interventions in Syria and Libya.  The Russian Federation is a state that carries out its plans without hesitation whenever it finds the opportunity and realizes when the right time has come. It is a country with a tradition that only retreats if its interlocutor is strong and resists.

13. What triggered the long-running crisis between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region?

The attempts of the USA and Britain to bring Ukraine under the umbrella of NATO, with their secret or open military aid to it, caused them to send warships to the Black Sea frequently. I also believe that Ukraine's strategic military and economic cooperation agreements with Turkey, as well as strengthening and armament moves have a catalytic effect.

14. How does the tension and close combat between Russia and Ukraine affect the regional and global balances?

Regionally, it primarily affects Turkey. Although we are one of the countries least affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic, which is effective all over the world, the Turkish Economy will be adversely affected by a regional war that will be experienced in our nearby geography. In a situation where the climate and food crisis, which became more pronounced after the Covid-19 pandemic in the world, started to take effect, such a war would be like an intervention by fueling a fire. Because, although I see a quirk of fate in global events that are effective in the world, I believe that the global causes of these are triggered by human will. If Covid-19 was put forward by a global human will as a requirement of a post-modern colonial understanding, I believe that the Climate and Food Crisis is a plan of the global mind, just like it. Because Allah does not form any living thing to die of hunger. He commits their sustenance before creating them. If people and animals are starving in many parts of the world today, it is because of the mischief-makers around the world. Colonial, insatiable and ambitious, they are states ruled by evil spirits descended from Cain. Their reckoning will be very painful in the Hereafter.  

15. Why is Erdogan's strong leadership important to Turkey at a time when the region is so chaotic?

Our Honorable President, like the great statesmen of the times of our Great Seljuk and Ottoman ancestors, is a very valuable statesman with a broad strategic perspective, compassionate and compassionate, who serves the nation as his main duty and can only come to this nation once in a century. Pakistan and other states envy Turkey for having such a talented leader. Under his brave, smart and hardworking leadership, Turkey is about to achieve a development move that cannot be achieved in a very long time, in just 20 years.

With the communication skills and friendships he established with the heads of the great states of the world, he practically and easily solved many issues and crises faced by our country. For example, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, has admitted many times that Erdogan is an honest and reliable leader in resolving the conflicts with Russia before it grows, even though it is against the interests of his country.

Due to the influence of the USA and Israel, some Arab countries that have taken hostile attitudes towards Turkey have tended to approach Turkey at the end of the last 8-10 years, because they have been positively affected by Erdogan’s strong, determined and fair foreign policies.

If Turkey has helped all oppressed countries regardless of religion or ethnicity, in many crises in the region and in the world, the end of the terrorist organizations that have not been completed for 40 years will come thanks to the courageous and determined policy he follows. In the Ukraine and Russia crisis, the issue will be resolved in a way before it turns into a regional and global crisis, I hope, with his mediator, brave and fair approach.

However, we learned with sadness that our very esteemed President was infected with the Corona virus on February 5, 2022.  I believe that not only in Turkey, but all the people who love him, (Muslim and non-Muslim) pray a lot (including me) for his recovery. 

Thank you.

Ali COŞAR

ASSAM Strategy and Security Specialist

06.02.2022 - ISTANBUL

[1] Both Donetsk People's Republic  and Luhansk People's Republic are called DONBAS. 

[2] AUKUS; It is an abbreviation consisting of the English initials of the words Australia- United Kingdom (England - United States).  It is a trilateral security pact announced by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States on September 15, 2021. With the pact, the United States and the United Kingdom aim to support Australia in developing and deploying nuclear powered submarines, and in the Pacific region, in particular to counter China's expansionist military and commercial efforts, and to contribute to the military presence of the West.

[3] The letter of Dear Journalist and Author Mehmet KANCI dated January 25, 2022 has been utilized.

[4] In the city of Banja Luka in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 9 January Republika Srpska Day celebrations were held, despite being unconstitutional. To the celebrations, Serbian member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential Council Milorad Dodik, President of the Republika Srpska (Autonomous region in Bosnia and Herzegovina) Zeljka Cvijanovic, as well as 800 members of the Republika Srpska police, 2,700 people attended, including the Spokesperson of the SERBIA Parliament Ivica Dacic, the Prime Minister of SERBIA Ana Brbanic, the Ambassador of Russia Igor Kalbuhov and the far-right French deputies. It was noted that the flags of the Republika Srpska were flying on streets and government institutions for celebrations in the city.  https://www.haberturk.com/bosna-hersek-te-anayasaya-aykiri-sirp-cumhuriyeti-gunu-kutlandi-3309244

[5] The other two events are the 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars and the defeat in the World War I. The deep causes of these last two events are based on the heavy defeat in 1877-78.

[6] The United Nations Security Council has 15 member states. Five of these countries are permanent members and ten are elected members. The United Nations Security Council includes the United States, the United Kingdom, France, the People's Republic of China and Russia as permanent members with the right to veto resolutions, and ten non-permanent member states. 10 rotating member countries are determined by the elections held at the United Nations General Assembly every two years. The Presidency of the Council is rotated between member states once a month. The General Assembly, where all member states are represented equally, is the main political organ of the United Nations. The resolutions of the United Nations Security Council are binding on all member states. 

[7] In 1943, the Tehran Conference and February 1945 Yalta continued in July 1945. In addition, the October 1944 Treaty of Moscow, in which Churchill and Stalin's Western European and Soviet influence areas were determined.

[8] Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that uses political warfare and synthesizes conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber warfare with other effective methods such as fake news, diplomacy, law and foreign election interference. The attacker ultimately uses hot shooting-war, combining kinetic operations with destructive efforts.  Hybrid warfare can be used to describe the flexible and complex dynamics of the battlefield, which requires a highly adaptable and resilient response. It is a type of war uniquely belong to the 21st century.

Link: https://www.yeniakit.com.tr/haber/ukrayna-batinin-umurunda-degil-1625010.html