Monday, 28 February 2022 14:19

Ukraine-Russia War

Written by Suat Gün
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  • This war could turn into a war of attrition for Russia. It could trigger the disintegration of Russia.
  • The USA encouraged Russia to attack Ukraine.
  • Ukraine is not an easy bite.
  • Russia uses its military forces and commando units without making a center of gravity.


  • On the evening of February 21, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, in his address to the “people of Russia”, declared that he recognized the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Although Putin's speech was called a public address, his speech was followed by the whole world.
  • The issue of separatist zones is one of the important trump cards in the Kremlin's “Immediate Surroundings” policy in general.
  • Russia's trump card: Separatist regions
  • The issue of separatist zones is one of the important trump cards in the Kremlin's “Immediate Surroundings” policy in general. Since 1991, Moscow has been actively using this factor in its relations with the former Soviet republics, as seen in the example of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. However, when the pressures on this issue do not yield results and it is understood that results cannot be obtained through “diplomatic” means, the “recognition” decision is taken as the most radical decision to be made on the subject.
  • The biggest mistake of the West is that it has not been able to produce a policy/approach towards the former Soviet republics in the past 30 years.
  • The same scenario was applied in the case of Donetsk and Luhansk. When the Kremlin saw that the Ukrainian administration would not implement the Minsk Agreement, which envisages the granting of special status to the aforementioned regions, and that it developed military cooperation with the West, it implemented its own scenario without giving the other side a chance to take a step. It will not be surprising that countries such as Belarus and Syria, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia, will soon recognize these regions.
  • Putin's “obsession” with the USSR and NATO
  • Because, since he came to power, he has repeatedly stated that the disintegration of the USSR was a great disaster and that NATO should become history together with the Soviet Union. As a matter of fact, especially from the second term of Putin's presidency (after reconstructing domestic politics and economy), Kremlin started to give priority to the former Soviet geography in its foreign policy.
  • Kremlin consolidated its presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. In 2008, it owned “fortresses” in the Caucasus, such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as Armenia, and built military bases there. In 2020, it further strengthened its power there by sending Peacekeeping Forces to Karabakh. The republics in Central Asia are already developing cooperation with Moscow within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union. In other words, Moscow regained a strong position in the former Soviet geography, except for the Baltics, in the 30th anniversary of the republics. In this chain, it closes the missing Ukrainian ring with Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • Threatening Russia with sanctions, which you have already sanctioned, cannot prevent Russia from taking any steps within the framework of its own policy.

  • Luhansk and Donetsk will be a barrier between the West and Russia. Thus, Moscow will also prevent NATO from approaching its Western border.
  • At the same time, recent developments and Putin's speech are interpreted as the rebirth of the “Soviet” on the European border, which has weakened and cracked in recent years. Thus, the EU's need and commitment to the US in military and energy fields will increase. In this context, the EU is the loser of recent incidents. As the EU border became more unstable, Russia got even closer to the EU. The most important weapon of the USA against the EU is the threat of Russia. The efforts of both German and French authorities did not yield any results. There is a diplomatic failure that undermines their prestige. Possible changes in the region
  • Just like in the example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, after the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, agreements regarding military assistance will be signed with these regions and Russian soldiers will be sent to these regions. Therefore, the military intervention of Ukraine in this region was also prevented. Because Ukraine's military intervention also threatens to spread the war in Ukraine and a new loss of territory. Ukraine, which was “encouraged” by the US sending troops to Eastern Europe and the EU sending weapons to Ukraine, and being too optimistic about both NATO membership and military support, was once again wrong.
  • This region is rich in coalfields.
  • Although the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk will only be recognized by Russia and a few other countries, Ukraine's territorial loss has actually become real. However, compliance with the Minsk Agreement (granting the said regions special status within the Ukraine) would have allowed Ukraine to regain control of these regions in the future. Even a pro-Russian government can no longer ensure the integrity of Ukraine.
  • Moscow will focus its energy resource exports to China and the Far East.
  • Russia's move to Ukraine and Putin's speech undoubtedly contain a message for other former Soviet republics as well. One of the remarkable points is that Vladimir Putin has received and will receive the leaders of the republic in Moscow. As a matter of fact, the President of Kazakhstan, Jomart Tokayev, stated that Russia gave him a guarantee on its territorial integrity. Within the framework of the developments in the last day, Tokayev's statement is better understood. It seems that in the future, Russia's cooperation with the Central Asian and Caucasian republics will further develop, the Union State project with Belarus will accelerate, and the number of members of the Eurasian Economic Union will increase.
Read 57 times Last modified on Friday, 04 March 2022 17:20
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